Where is the post-COVID UK property market headed?

July 30, 2020

The UK property market was frozen in its tracks when the lockdown struck back in March, with the strange state of suspended animation lasting until estate agents were allowed to reopen in mid-May. 

Since then, the market has rebounded strongly, helped along by the suspension of stamp duty until April 2021. The temporary measure means that buyers can save up to £15,000 on the price of a property. This has done much to reignite interest in the market, both from owner-occupiers and from investors.

“Based on the swift resurgence that we’re already seeing, the outlook for the UK property market feels a lot more positive than many would have dared to hope back in the midst of the lockdown. While we won’t see the market catch up with the transactions missed during nearly two months of inactivity, the stamp duty relief is doing much to kickstart both sales and confidence.”

Dale Anderson, Managing Director, Fabrik Invest

So, what happens next? According to Rightmove, around 175,000 sellers were ‘missing’ between March and May. Hometrack, meanwhile, believes that the UK market’s missed sales will even out to a total of 124,000 by the end of the year. That equates to a value of £27 billion.

Interestingly, though, transactions bounced back much more quickly in June than most analysts had expected, providing a sense of positivity and resilience in the market.  

When it comes to the likely impact of the pandemic on prices, opinions vary. Hometrack’s June 2020 House Price Index observes that, “Momentum from start of year and post lockdown continues to support headline rate of house price growth.”

Savills, meanwhile, has revised its forecast from a 1.0% average rise in prices for 2020 to a 7.5% fall. However, the revised forecast includes higher than previously projected price increases for every year from 2021 to 2024. Savills’ analysts now foresee a 5.0% price rise in 2021, followed by an 8.0% leap in 2022. 

What does this mean for investors? In a nutshell, it means that the latter half of 2020 could be the ideal time to buy. While buy-to-let investors will still need to pay the 3% second home stamp duty surcharge, the government’s temporary cut means that they could still benefit from saving as much as £15,000 on the purchase price. Not only that but buying while prices temporarily dip provides excellent potential for enjoying a fairly swift increase in value over the coming two years (and beyond).

“There are some really exciting opportunities on the market for buy-to-let investors at the moment, with the potential for discounts while the situation rebalances. It’s a window of opportunity that won’t last long but we certainly expect to see investment activity continue apace during the rest of 2020.”

Dale Anderson, Managing Director, Fabrik Invest

For further details, you can contact the Fabrik Invest team by calling 020 8175 9891, emailing enquiries@fabrikpropertygroup.com or visiting www.fabrikinvest.com

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Wayne Venter

International Business Development Manager

Wayne has been in the property industry for over 17 years. He started out selling residential properties in the northern suburbs of Sandton, South Africa, for one of the bigger real estate brands, before moving to a boutique, Johannesburg-based property developer. He worked at a senior level, specialising in residential developments on the north coast of KZN and various other areas of Northern Johannesburg.

Wayne moved to selling luxury, free standing homes and apartments in Sandton, Johannesburg in 2006, having joined the Country’s leading real estate brand and within six months was leading the team. In 2008, he began to focus exclusively on the luxury apartments in central Sandton, priced from approximately R2 million to R60 million. Over the years, he has also added commercial property sales and rentals to his repertoire, as well as building his own investment property portfolio between 2011 and 2018.

By 2018, realising where the South African property market was headed, he sold out of his investment property portfolio to de-risk and went looking for a real estate company to buy into. South Africa’s property market was extremely volatile at that time, so Wayne took the initiative and moved to London to work in property in the UK.

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Edward Snell

Senior Property Consultant

I live in Spanish countryside with my wife and our 11 rescue dogs.

Originally from Bedford, I have two sons, two step children & 6 grandchildren.

I have a keen interest in property investment and over the years have built up a personal portfolio for the purposes of rental income and capital growth.

I have over 20 years’ experience in property investment, both in the UK & overseas.

My other interests include animal welfare, football, motorsports, travel and music

My personality is of an even temperament and I enjoy the cut and thrust of doing deals.
I am happy and successful in what I do & take great pleasure in providing my clients with successful outcomes.

I’m a good team player but work well as an individual.

Daniel Harburn

Property Sales Consultant

Daniel had a passion for property from a young age so he began his working life by undertaking a plumbing apprenticeship for a large well known UK developer to pursue a career in construction. After qualifying he soon realised that building relationships was a preferred skill of his due to his loyal and trusting nature.

From then on Daniel launched his career in sales where he worked his way to to a high performing sales person at a creative media company. Part of Daniels success in accumulating clients over the last 10 years is put down to his diligence in customer experience.

Daniel has a keen interest in golf and also in keeping himself fit which is essential as he and his fiancé have 4 year old twins, Jacob and Sofia who keep them both on their toes.

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